Right-Wing Parties Remain Popular in Europe But Hindered by Support from Trump

This conclusion is suggested by an article entitled L'automne des populismes européens? authored by Marc Lazar, an expert at Institut Montaigne – a French think tank. The article is posted on the Institute’s website.

A ‘Remigration Summit’, organized by Matteo Salvini, Liga head and member of Giorgia Meloni’s government, was marred by Viktor Orbán’s failure in t

he Hungarian parliamentary election on 12 April.

After a long spring for European populisms, driven by a series of their electoral successes, has a fall season has come for them now? This might seem indicated by facts such as Giorgia Meloni’s failure in her March referendum on justice, the electoral defeat of Viktor Orbán, and weak mobilization for Matteo Salvini’s rally in Milan on 18 April.

Analysts highlight opposition to national-populist governments and strong mobilization of voters, especially young people, in Italy and Hungary. Populism in Italy and Hungary has suffered a blow that would herald a more general retreat of other European populisms.

Yet populist momentum remains strong in various countries. In Sweden, where the election will be held on 13 September, the Sweden Democrats, a far-right national populist party, is still asserting itself as the second most important political force.

In France, the National Rally made a breakthrough in the last municipal election, and all opinion polls show that its two leaders, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, are the preferred political leaders of the French; either would easily pass into the second round of next year’s presidential election.

Giorgia Meloni recorded a minor decline in popularity, but she and her party, Frères d'Italie, are largely ahead in voting intentions for the 2027 elections.

In Austria, the Freedom Party leads voting intentions with 37 percent (8.2 percent up from 2024), while Vox would gather 18 per cent of votes from the Spanish (5.5 percent up from 2023).

Yet there is a common negative factor: support from Donald Trump. Its adverse effect was quite visible in the Hungarian election. A principal lesson for the various right-wing national-populist forces is that Donald Trump and his administration are not favorable political resources; quite the contrary.

On the one hand, like all other national-populist parties, Trump embraces sovereignty, nativism, denunciation of illegal immigration and a fight against wokeism. On the other hand, Europe denounces his customs duties, intervention in Venezuela, desire to seize Greenland, and now his war in Iran.

The National Rally has to take into account the massive rejection of Trump among the French, including its own voters.

Giorgia Meloni wanted to be closest to Donald Trump. She has great political and ideological affinities with the Republicans and would like to continue the Italian Atlanticist policy and play a role as an intermediary between Brussels and Washington.

Trump’s erratic behavior towards Ukraine puts Meloni in difficulty because she supports Kiev. As a strong exporter country, Italy is penalized by the U.S. customs duties. The Iran war is unpopular in Italy due to the energy prices and Italians’ pacifist sentiments. Finally, Donald Trump’s attacks on Pope Leo XIV led Meloni, after some hesitation, to declare them ‘unacceptable’. That brought her under a barrage of criticism from the American president, who had called her a great friend just a few weeks before. Giorgia Meloni is seeking to distance herself from Trump a year before the election, especially as 81% of Italians reject the U.S. president.

The 'patriotic European parties', to use the American wording, currently prefer not to respond to Washington’s call – even though many of them share the Republicans’ critical arguments against Europe, such as restricted freedom of expression, excessive regulation, and cultural dominance of the left.

Source: https://www.institutmontaigne.org/expressions/lautomne-des-populismes-europeens