Trump Pulling Troops Out of Germany. Canceled Missile Deployments to Erode the Foundations of NATO Deterrence

President Donald Trump’s recent announcement that the United States would withdraw five thousand troops from Germany – with the threat of ‘cutting’ even more from U.S. bases across Europe – has taken U.S. allies by surprise. The decision seems driven less by strategic calculations about burden-shifting within NATO and more by a desire to punish Europeans for their criticism of and limited support for the Iran war.

This move does not appear to threaten the minimum number of 76,000 troops that Congress has mandated the Pentagon to station in Europe. Yet it does add to a list of issues that have lasting consequences for European security. This includes depleted U.S. stockpiles due to the Iran war and delayed arms deliveries to Europe, but the possible cancellation of Tomahawk cruise missiles that were planned to be stationed in Germany in 2027 is of particular concern. This issue is discussed by Liana Fix, a senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of a book entitled Germany Rearmed: The Return of War and the End of Illusions that is to appear soon.

The United States had long been expected to reconsider its current troop level and basings in Europe. However, Europeans were reassured by U.S. NATO Permanent Representative Matthew Whitaker, who said that any adjustments would be pursued in coordination with U.S. allies to ensure that there were no ‘strategic gaps’ that could leave Europe more vulnerable.

The decision is particularly painful for Germany, which has been a model NATO ally in many ways. Berlin is massively investing in its own defense and will reach NATO’s goal of 3.5 percent of GDP by 2029. But it appears Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s criticism of the Iran war, meant for a German domestic audience, has triggered a backlash from Trump.

At first glance, the effect of the withdrawal itself is rather limited. Five thousand troops represent about one-seventh of the roughly 38,000 service members currently stationed in Germany. And even if the Trump administration wanted to make further adjustments to the troop levels in Europe, Congress has created its legal baseline of 76,000 deployed service members that would bar the White House from withdrawing more.

More concerning than the immediate troop withdrawal is the possible cancellation of the long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles that are to be stationed in Germany in 2027. This was agreed upon by former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and former U.S. President Joe Biden in 2024 and intended to counter Russian missiles stationed in Kaliningrad. It would be the first stationing of long-range, ground-based missiles in Germany after the end of the Cold War and the end of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Although the possibility of a cancellation is unsurprising, given that U.S. stockpiles of Tomahawks are rapidly depleting due to the Iran war, it could leave Europe lacking a critical fighting capability that it cannot immediately replace on its own.

In addition, the rapid depletion of U.S. stockpiles during the Iran war leaves Europe and Ukraine with a significant lag in U.S. deliveries.

All together, these announcements and ongoing transatlantic tensions will clearly undermine the credibility of U.S. military presence in Europe. It is another drop in an already full bucket for Europe, leaving the security of U.S. allies in a more vulnerable situation than it has been before.

Source: https://www.cfr.org/articles/trump-is-pulling-troops-from-germany-the-missiles-are-a-bigger-problem