A report entitled From Rupture to Relevance: Investing in Europe’s Southern Partnerships was published on the website of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations (Clingendael) on 3 February 2026. Its authors are Megan Price, head of the Conflict Research Unit, and Máté Szalai, a research fellow at the same unit.

Germany’s China policy has flipped from cosy commerce to uneasy competition, and this report explains why the old model finally broke. Berlin spent years selling the idea of win-win trade while piling up dependency and risk. Now reality has intruded. China is no longer just a market. It is a strategic challenger, and Germany is scrambling to adjust without wrecking its own economy.

Global politics has turned hostile, and Europe is paying the price. This report lays out how wars, great-power rivalry and economic fragmentation are colliding with Europe’s weak growth, high debt and fragile politics. The message is restrained but unforgiving: the shocks are real, the buffers are thin, and the room for error is shrinking.

Europe likes to talk about balance. This analysis shows a continent losing it. As rivalry between the United States and China hardens, Europe is being pulled apart by its own dependence, hesitation and fear of choosing sides. The space for comfortable neutrality is shrinking fast.

France is stuck in a political traffic jam, and nobody has a clear way out. This analysis shows how the fall of the government has tipped the country into a dangerous stalemate, with weak leadership, blocked institutions and urgent decisions kicked down the road. At a moment of budget strain, social tension and international pressure, Paris is burning time it no longer has.

The commentary takes stock of France’s position abroad and finds a country still desperate to look like a global power, but increasingly constrained by reality. Paris talks confidently about leadership, autonomy and influence.

The analysis delivers an unflattering verdict on Europe’s security trajectory. Despite louder rhetoric and higher spending promises, Europe is ending up with less real protection and deeper reliance on others. The piece argues that the EU’s response to a harsher world has been reactive and fragmented, producing the illusion of strength while hard dependencies quietly thicken.

The analysis asks a provocative question Europe would rather avoid – could US pressure end up nudging Europe closer to China instead of pulling it firmly into line. The answer is uncomfortable. As Washington hardens its demands on security, trade and technology, Europe risks being boxed into choices it is not ready to make.

On 20 January 2026, the U.S. Brookings Institute publishes an article entitled “Can an alliance divided against itself compete with China?” by Jonathan A. Czin, Fellow at the Institute’s Chair in Foreign Policy Studies. The article is published under the Institute’s Reimagining Europe’s Security project.

The analysis looks at Donald Trump’s disruptive return to the Davos stage and delivers a mixed verdict for Europe. The shock was real. Complacency was punctured. But the claim that this jolt has made Europe “healthier” is treated with caution. The piece argues that Trump’s blunt pressure may have clarified problems, yet it has not solved them. Europe feels more alert, but still underpowered.

The brief delivers a sharp critique of the EU’s regulatory machine and lands on an awkward conclusion – Europe’s problem is no longer lack of ambition, but too much poorly controlled lawmaking. Brussels keeps piling on rules in the name of protection, fairness and strategy. The result is a regulatory thicket that slows growth, scares investment and weakens Europe’s ability to compete. The paper argues that “better regulation” has become a slogan masking systemic failure.

The analysis warns that Washington’s hardening “Donroe Doctrine” has now reached the Arctic – and Europe is not ready for the consequences. What once felt like a remote, cooperative space is turning into a theatre of power politics where the United States moves first and sets terms. The piece argues that Europe’s Arctic influence is thinning fast as American priorities tighten and security logic crowds out partnership.

The commentary delivers a sobering security forecast for 2026 and makes one thing clear – Europe is entering a year of elevated danger with little margin for error. Conflict risks are multiplying on Europe’s borders and beyond, while the EU’s ability to shape events remains limited. The piece argues that this is no longer about isolated crises. It is about a crowded threat landscape where several conflicts could escalate at once and stretch Europe’s attention, resources and unity.